I happen upon this old thread now. Maybe it is still worth giving an update, and more of an answer.
The latest account (as of the time of this writing) of the conjectural statement in question here appears as Conjecture 1.17 in
(See section 1.8 there for explicit comparison to the earlier accounts which have been cited in the other replies.)
As Aaron hints at in another reply, this conjecture is motivated from two facts:
first, the partition function of the (heterotic) superstring -- the Witten genus being a ring homomorphism
$$
\Omega^{String}_{\bullet} \longrightarrow MF_\bullet
$$
from the cobordism ring of Green-Schwarz quantum anomaly-free spacetimes to the ring of modular forms has a homotopy-theoretic refinement to what is called the String-orientation of tmf, which is now a homomorphism of coherently homotopy-commutative rings
$$
M String \longrightarrow tmf
$$
to the tmf-spectrum.
Second, Stefan Stolz and Peter Teichner in their earlier work on (1|1)-dimensional field theories and K-theory have shown that in some sense the "space" of $(1|1)$-dimensional quantum superparticle theories is K-theory spectrum.
This is suggestive, because by chromatic homotopy theory there is a precise mathematical sense in which tmf is the 2-dimensional (stringy) version of K-theory theory.
Therefore the above Conjecture 1.17 says very roughly that the "space" of suitably 2-dimensional super-string theories should "be" $tmf$.
For the time being it seems fair to say that the conjecture really remains a conjecture. What the above article establishes rigorously is a rederivation of the Witten genus in such a way that now the conjecture may be phrased precisely.
(Over the last years, much of the attention in this "Stolz-Teichner program" has been on lower dimensional analogs of the general idea. Much work has appeared on the lower-dimensional case of $(0|1)$-dimensional field theories (physically: super-instantons, super D(-1)-branes). )