I'm trying to understand the entanglement-enabled delayed choice experiment and I'm kind of stuck at the term "coincidence count probability" which I can't seem to find definition of.
Their full set up is as follows (Fig. 2 from the paper linked above):
However, as I'm having trouble understanding the whole thing, I've made a drawing of a simplified version of this experiment:
A pair of entangled photons is generated and sent into two labs. The one on the left (the corroborative "C" photon) is passed through a polarizing beam splitter (PBS) to figure out its polarization. If it's detected at $D_{V}$, it's vertically polarized, else it's detected at $D_{H}$ and horizontally polarized.
The other one (the test photon) is sent to a modified Mach-Zehnder interferometer (MZI). Here, it passes through a regular beam splitter and then through a polarization-dependent beam splitter (PDBS) which works differently depending on the polarization of the photon. If it's horizontally polarized, then the photon following the "A" path is reflected to the $D_{a}$ detector, and the photon following the "B" path is reflected to the $D_{b}$ detector, which prevents any interference and corresponds to an open MZI. If the photon is vertically polarized, then it works like a regular beam splitter, so both photon "parts", so to speak, interfere with each other, and because of the overall phase difference, we get destructive interference at $D_{a}$ and constructive one at $D_{b}$.
There are also some details that I left out in my version because I don't think they are relevant to my question. Namely, the lab on the left is further away, to make it truly a delayed choice experiment. They also rotate the polarization of the "C" photon by some angle $\alpha$ using an EOM (to partially erase information about its polarization) and put "A" and "B" photons through PBSes tilted at 45° to completely erase information about their polarization, and then, for the "A" case, detect the two beams $a$ and $a^{\prime}$, counting $D_{a}\oplus D_{a^{\prime}}$ (where $\oplus$ is a XOR gate). The "B" path is set up in the same way. But this XOR count would be the same as the $D_a$ count in my drawing, right? They also introduce some phase shift $\theta$ along the "A" path in the MZI.
The (simplified) state reads as
$\left|\Psi\right\rangle =\frac{1}{2}\left|c_{H}a_{H}\right\rangle +\frac{i}{2}\left|c_{H}b_{H}\right\rangle +\frac{i}{\sqrt{2}}\left|c_{V}b_{V}\right\rangle.$
OK, this makes sense. If the photon is horizontally polarized, it can arrive at either $D_a$ or $D_b$ with equal probability of 1/4 (the "i" corresponds to the phase difference). If it's vertically polarized, it definitely arrives at $D_b$ (probability is 1/2 because it's the probability of the photon being vertically polarized in the first place).
Now for the part I'm stuck at. They say
The expected intensity correlations, given by the coincidence count probability between detectors $D_H$ (corroborative) and $\left[D_{a}\oplus D_{a^{\prime}}\right]$ (test), where ⊕ denotes an exclusive OR (XOR) gate, are
$I_{a}\left(\theta,\alpha\right)=\cos^2\frac{\theta}{2}\sin^2\alpha + \frac{1}{2}\cos^2\alpha$
Note that the correlations between detectors $D_V$ and $\left[D_b\oplus D_{b^{\prime}}\right]$ follow the same function.
And this completely puzzles me. In my simplified case $\alpha=0$, $\theta=0$, so the "coincidence count probability", whatever that is, is equal to 1/2 both for $D_H$ / $D_a$ and for $D_V$ / $D_b$ which doesn't make any sense. If we define that as the probability of detecting a photon at both detectors, then it should be 1/4 and 1/2 respectively. If we define that as the probability to get equal results at both detectors, then it's 3/4 (1/4 for detecting at both and 1/2 for detecting at neither) for $D_H$ / $D_a$ and, by the same logic, also for $D_V$ / $D_b$.
I'm obviously missing something trivial here, but what exactly?