In textbooks, the criticism of the Dirac equation is that it may allow transitions from the positive energy state $m c^2$ to its corresponding negative energy state by releasing one or more photons. It is mentioned that, to satisfy energy-momentum conservation, this transition might happen close to a nucleus. Once this problem is presented, it is usually stated that second quantization is needed to solve this problem, introducing electrons and positrons.
My question is, if we consider the Dirac equation with the electromagnetic field, given an initial state representing a single electron, are transitions from the positive energy states to negative energy states actually possible given the time evolution dictated by the equation ? I learned from quantum mechanics that not all transitions between energy states are possible because there are selection rules that make some matrix elements zero.
My intuition would say that such transitions should not be possible and an electron will stay in the energy level $m c^2$ because no further transitions toward negative energy states can happen, mediated by the electromagnetic field. However, I am not sure this is actually true and I am not currently able to provide a reasoned answer. On the other hand, I have never seen any demonstration that such transitions can actually occur.