This is a very good question, and the answer is No. Using Conservation of Energy (i.e. 1st Law of Thermodynamics) alone, ordered systems can indeed arise out of disordered ones. E.g. ice cubes could melt into lukewarm water in a glass, and then reform into ice cubes and hotter water. The law of entropy increase (2nd Law of Thermodynamics) is a separate concept required to explain the evolution of a system.
The best way I've found to characterize entropy is matter and energy mixing and spreading out.
For instance, in your campfire example, the gases (CO2 and H2O) that once made up the log are dispersed and mixed into the atmosphere (N2,O2) and diluted to undetectable levels. Gathering the CO2 molecules from amongst the N2 and O2 requires energy input $E_{in}$. I.e. a process or being must discriminate between CO2 and other molecules. Plants do this via photosynthesis, but this requires energy from the Sun. And the energy required to collect 1 log's worth of carbon from the atmosphere is more than the energy that was released by burning the log ($E_{log}$).
So to return to the state of having an unburned log with stored energy $E_{log}$ ready to be ignited, it requires the following energy to be expended:
$$E_{return}=E_{log}+E_{in}$$
Where $E_{in}$ accounts for photosynthesis, a human being cutting the log and lifting it over to the campfire area, etc.
The important point is $E_{return}$ will always be greater than $E_{log}$, the energy released by the process in the forward direction.
In addition, what enabled the plants to perform the unmixing of carbon from air was the energy $E_{sun}$ received from the sun. But the total amount of $E_{sun}$ needed to collect 1 log's worth of carbon is greater than the $E_{log}$ released by burning the log.
So at every step in the energy usage process, it requires more energy to return to the previous state as is liberated by getting to the current state.
The basic reason for this, again, is mixing and spreading out, which I find more helpful to visualize than "disorder." Examples of processes that increase entropy are: alcohol being poured into water, CO2 gas mixing with air, a pressurized gas venting out of a container and escaping (position states mixing), a hot object cooling into a cooler environment (thermal energy states mixing), an ordered Ace-King deck of cards being shuffled by a dealer. Try to imagine "undoing" any one of these processes. They can all be done, but in every case, it requires a person or a machine to actively expend effort distilling the alcohol, collecting the gas, pumping out the heat, or choosing and ordering the cards one by one. This extra effort must itself come from an entropy-increasing process (i.e. a process that causes some part of the universe to become more mixed and spread out than it was). Therefore, total entropy of the universe must always increase.
On an arbitrarily long time scale as you mention, we have what is called the Heat Death of the universe. All stars will burn out, any object hotter than the vacuum of space (2 Kelvin) will cool to 2 Kelvin, and we will be left with cold matter and light waves. Nothing interesting will happen anymore, because all thermal and physical states will be maximally "spread out" and "mixed," and no usable energy source will be available to "unmix" them. The universe will be like a wind-up toy that has completely wound down.
Here is a short video series that may be of interest, which gives a brilliant overview of this topic.