How much can I learn about correlations between two quits by measuring the sum of their values? What is the best way to formalize such a question?
Below is my original, longer formulation of the same question in spin language. I have an ensemble of pairs of spin-$1/2$ particles. All I can do is to measure total $S_z$ for each pair, each time learning one of the three standard outcomes: $+1$, $0$ or $-1$. Based on the knowledge of this probability distribution $P(S_z)$, what can be said about the density matrix of my ensemble? In particular, what is best measure for correlations between the two particles in these circumstances?
I understand that I won't be able to distinguish whether the correlations are classical or necessarily quantum-mechanical, but struggle to come up with a measure better than a classical correlation coefficient $$r=\frac{\langle s_1 s_2 \rangle-\langle s_1 \rangle \langle s_2 \rangle}{\sqrt{\langle (s_1- \langle s_1 \rangle)^2 \rangle \langle (s_2- \langle s_2 \rangle)^2 \rangle }}$$ where $s_1$ and $s_2$ are the $\pm 1/2$ spin projections (or $0$, $1$ qubit values) of the 1st and the 2nd particle, respectively, so that my only observable can be expressed as $S_z=s_1+s_2$. I then minimize $r$ over all possible $\langle s_1 \rangle$ and $\langle s_1 \rangle$ consistent with measured $P(S_z)$ and declare that the outcome is the minimal possible correlation in the pair. Is there a more elegant way?
UPDATE: Classically, if we take the definition of zero correlations as $\langle s_1 s_2 \rangle =\langle s_1 \rangle \langle s_2 \rangle$, then it implies that $s_1 = +1/2$ and $s_2=+1/2$ with some independent probabilities $p_1$ and $p_2$, so that the sum is distributed bimomially $P(+1)=p_1 p_2$ and $P(-1)=(1-p_1)(1-p_2)$. These two equations have a solution with $0\leq p_1, p_2 \leq 1$ only if $$P(+1) < 1-2 \sqrt{P(-1)}+P(-1)$$
Graphically, this condition is satisfied within the region bounded by a black line in the plot below. The rest of the available probability space is the region of excess correlations ($r_{\text{min}}>0$, depicted in red).
Updated question: is there a quantum loophole in such analysis? I suspect not but would really like to come up with a shorter/cleaner argument.
Update no. 2 My selected spin/qubit degree of freedom is one of the many variables characterizing the state of the two particles. Can we be sure there exists no pure product state that can lead to $r_{\text{min}}>0$? See a related active question on fermionic entanglement of two particles.
Update no. 3 The work that motivated this question has been published in Nature Nanotechnology; the open access version is arXiv:1404.0030.