The field you are interested in is always calculated as some derivative of the potential. I don't have Jackson handy, but I'm guessing in the magnetostatic case, you take ${\bf H} = -\nabla \Phi_M$ to calculate the fields. The gradient of a $1/r$ quantity is something like a $1/r^2$ quantity. You can figure this out exactly by taking the gradient in the appropriate coordinate system. In any case, you'll get a term like $\frac{\partial}{\partial r}\frac{1}{r}=-\frac{1}{r^2}$
To do a "far away" expansion, start by figuring that if your surface is small compared to how far away the observation point $\bf x$ will be, then $|{\bf x-x'}|\approx|{\bf x}|$. This probably isn't good enough to get an answer, so let's look at one order of approximation of the effect of the surface, so say your surface is in the $z=0$ plane, kind of centered on the $z$-axis, then
$$
|{\bf x-x'}| = \sqrt{(x-x')^2+(y-y')^2+z^2}=
z\sqrt{1+\frac{(x-x')^2+(y-y')^2}{z^2}}
$$
Then approximate your integrand using the first order series $\left(1+\epsilon\right)^{-1/2}\approx 1-\epsilon/2$
$$
\frac{M}{|{\bf x-x'}|}\approx \frac{M}{z}\left(1-\frac{(x-x')^2+(y-y')^2}{2z^2}\right)
$$
The integral over the primed coordinates will depend on the specifics of your surface, but you can already see the leading order $1/z$ behavior in the potential. There is a $1/z^3$ correction term as well. It's clear then that near the $z$-axis, far away, $z\approx r$ and you get potentials that fall of as the inverse distance. Taking the gradient of this should get you the appropriate $1/r^2$ field fall-off, and $1/r^4$ correction term that matters near the plate. You'd of course have to crunch a simple integral over the primed coordinates to get these near field specifics, and even then, within the range of validity of the approximation we made, which is that $(x-x')^2+(y-y')^2\ll z^2$, i.e. near the $z$-axis.
The geometry of the plate doesn't really matter in this, as long as it's finite, meaning we can get far away above it so it looks "small" when we look back at it.
As for higher order field fall-off, I know these kinds of effects can occur when two types of sources are near each other in such a way that they cancel to a first order approximation. This could be the case with your second "bottom" surface; if the magnetization on the bottom surface is the opposite of the top, I think the first order $1/z$ dependece of the potentials will cancel, leaving you $1/z^3$ potentials. Taking the gradients of these will give $1/z^4$ fall off directly over the finite plate.
Finally, given the potential formulation you are using, I would not expect dipole like $1/r^3$ field falloff. The potential has to be like $1/r^2$ to get $1/r^3$ field fall off, whereas the potential you are using is $1/r$, like a magnetic monopole. Is this the right formulation for your magnetization? I'm not sure, but Wiki has the magnetostatic scalar potential as falling off as $1/r^2$ to begin with, which would give you your expected dipole-like $1/r^3$ field.