If you want to make your life more complicated sit down and buckle up because I'm going full in.
First we must take a look at how the ball bounces back in the first place, since this is rather tricky for instant bounces. Consider the following situtation:

A ball with some initial momentum $\vec p$ moves to the right and hits a slope. Let's ignore gravity for now because this problem is going to be complicated enough. During the collision a force will act on the ball and we don't how that force looks exactly, but we know two things
- The force is a normal force, so during the collision the force will be along a line joining the contact point and the center of the ball (see the red arrow in the picture)
- Energy will be conserved (ideal environment) so $|\vec{p}\,'|=|\vec p|$ where $\vec p\,'$ is the momentum after the collision.
From this we can conclude the momentum will change in the following way:

The momentum is rotated by $2\theta$ since $\Delta p$, the red arrow, has to be parallel to the normal force. Now apply this to the two edge cases you mentioned to see this makes sense. For the head on collision we have $\theta=\pi/2$ so the momentum will be rotated by $\pi$. This means the particle will bounce back directly like expected. For the case with the large arc we have a continuously varying curve. Let's break up the curve in many line segments and take the limit towards a continuous curve. In this limit the angle between two sections goes to zero so the angle at which the ball bounces away also goes to zero. The ball keeps hugging the curve like expected.
Now let's look at the case where radius of curvature equals the radius of the ball. This case is tricky and we have to make some choices. Let's consider a short time interval during which the collision happens. The entire lower-right quarter of the ball experiences a force at the same time, but we don't actually know how this force is distributed. I'll make the following assumption so we can actually calculate something: the force at each contact point is proportional to $\hat r\cdot\vec v$, where $\vec r$ is the vector joining the center of the ball and the contact point and $\hat r=\tfrac 1 r\vec r$. The force is also in the direction of $\hat r$ since it is a normal force. Convince yourself that this agrees with the case I mentioned first. I define $\phi$ such that $\phi=0$ at the right-most contact point and $\phi=\pi/2$ at the lowest contact point.
The total change in momentum can now be written as an integral over all the contact angles ($\phi$). Since we don't know the exact magnitude yet I introduce a factor $c$ to be determined later.
$$\Delta \vec p\propto\int (-\hat r\cdot \vec v)\hat r\mathrm{d}\phi\\
=c\int_0^{\pi/2} (-\cos\phi)\begin{pmatrix}\cos\phi\\-\sin\phi\end{pmatrix}\mathrm{d}{\phi}\\
=c\begin{pmatrix}-\pi/4\\1/2\end{pmatrix}$$
The last line used $$\int_0^{\pi/2}-\cos^2(\phi)\,\mathrm{d}\phi=-\pi/4,\int_0^{\pi/2}\cos(\phi)\sin(\phi)\,\mathrm{d}\phi=1/2$$
To determine $c$ I use conversation of enery again. So $|\vec p+\Delta \vec p|=|\vec p|$. Plugging this equation for $c$ in Mathematica gives
$$c=\frac{8\pi mv}{4+\pi^2}.$$
An ugly expression, but an answer at least. The fact that it is proportional to $\vec p$ makes the angle always the same as you will see shortly. To determine the angle between two vectors you can use
$$\cos\theta=\frac{\vec a\cdot \vec b}{|\vec a||\vec b|}.$$
Plugging this in for $\vec p$ and $\vec p\,'=\vec p+\Delta\vec p$ finally gives (using Mathematica again I'm not crazy)
$$\theta=\arccos\left(\frac{4-\pi^2}{4+\pi^2}\right)\approx 115.037^{\circ}$$
Or about this angle:

I would like to stress again that I made some assumptions about how the force is distributed during the collision so your answer might be different if you made different assumptions. You have to make these assumptions since this problem is impossible to define exactly.
TLDR - under some assumptions you can calculate the angle at which the particle bounces back. My calculations give $115^{\circ}$ ( $65^{\circ}$ with respect to the ground)
EDIT - In the comments it was suggested that the restoring force for a particular angle is proportional to $-\cos^2\phi$ instead of $-\cos\phi$. I'm not convinced entirely but in that case the calculation comes out to be $\theta=\arccos(-3/5)\approx 2.21$ radians or $53^{\circ}$ from the ground.