I've understood the assumptions and logic behind the 'proof' that the ground state of a particle in an infinite potential well has a non-zero energy using the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle. Essentially, it is proved from $\left<H\right>=\left<P^2\right>/2m$ and $\Delta P\cdot\Delta X\geq \hbar/2$ that $$\left<H\right>\geq\frac{\hbar^2}{8m\left(\Delta X\right)^2}.$$
Hence the ground state's energy eigenstate $E_1$ is constrained by $$E_1=\left<H\right>\geq\frac{\hbar^2}{2mL^2}$$where $L$ is the width of the well (i.e we're constrained to $-L/2\leq x\leq L/2$ for allowed values of $x$), if we consider an energy eigenstate with $n=1$. Obviously, $n=0$ is neglected because that suggests a zero-energy case with a useless wavefunction like $\psi_0=0$.
The canonical attempts to find actual energy eigenstates of a particle in a box gives $$E_n=\frac{\hbar^2\pi^2n^2}{2mL^2}.$$ Thus Shankar says in Principles of Quantum Mechanics "the uncertainty principle is often used in this fashion to provide a quick order-of-magnitude estimate for the ground-state energy".
But my question is why is this HUP method a good estimation? Why is this lower bound 'close' to the actual value? I don't see why it isn't a meaningless/trivial bound like saying "the lower bound for 1 mole is 2 particles because I can obviously divide 12 grams of carbon-12 more than twice without changing chemical properties".
Is it purely a coincidence that we're off by $\pi^2$ (and not some other 'huge' value or $L$-dependent factor) from the actual value when we use our estimate to find the lowest $\left<H\right>$ which is not forbidden by HUP? Is it perhaps a bad estimation, since
with the appropriate value of $L$, the difference between HUP's lower bound and the actual $E_1$ is huge OR
$\pi^2\approx9.86$ is not very 'small'?
Or is there a deeper concept which suggests that there is a low likelihood of $$\Delta P\cdot \Delta X \gg \frac{\hbar}{2}$$ being true, which would cause the expectation of the hamiltonian to be a whole lot larger than $\hbar^2/(2ml)$ for a particle in an infinite potential well?
Related: Using the Heisenberg Uncertainty Relation to Estimate Ground State Energies