Update Below
I'm having a hard time reconciling two different calculations of the quantum two time correlation function. Consider quantum operator $A$ with eigenvectors $\{|\phi_i\rangle\}$ and correpsonding eigenvalues $\{a_i\}$. The system starts in state $|\psi\rangle$ and this is the state for which we are calculated the two-time correlation function. There is a time evolution operator and we have
\begin{align} |\psi(t)\rangle &= U(t)|\psi(0)\rangle = U(t)|\psi\rangle\\ A(t) &= U^{\dagger}(t)A(0)U(t) = U^{\dagger}(t)AU(t) \end{align}
First calculation, direct expansion of Heisenberg expression for two time correlation function: \begin{align} \langle A(t_1)A(t_2)\rangle &= \langle \psi|U^{\dagger}(t_1)AU(t_1)U^{\dagger}(t_2)AU(t_2)|\psi\rangle\\ &= \sum_{i,j}a_ia_j\langle\psi|U^{\dagger}(t_1)|\phi_i\rangle\langle\phi_i|U(t_1)U^{\dagger}(t_2)|\phi_j\rangle \langle\phi_j|U(t_2)|\psi\rangle \end{align}
Second calculation, applications of born rule/state reduction and unitary evolution:
$$ \langle A(t_1)A(t_2) \rangle = \sum_{i,j} a_i a_j \left(\langle\psi|U^{\dagger}(t_1)|\phi_i\rangle \langle \phi_i|U(t_1)|\psi\rangle \right)\left(\langle\phi_i|U(t_1)U^{\dagger}(t_2)|\phi_j\rangle\langle\phi_j|U(t_2)U^{\dagger}(t_1)|\phi_i\rangle\right) $$
Here the term inside the first parentheses is the probability of finding the state after time $t_1$, $\psi(t_1)$, to be in state $|\phi_i\rangle$ with eigenvalue $a_i$. The second term supposes state reduction occured at time $t_1$ with $|\psi(t_1)\rangle \rightarrow |\phi_i\rangle$ I then introduce Unitary evolution on this new state from time $t_1$ to time $t_2$ and then calculate the probability for this new state, $|\phi_i(t_2-t_1)\rangle$ to be found in state $|\phi_j\rangle$ with eigenvalue $a_j$.
For these two expressions to be equal we can see that we would need
$$ \langle\phi_j|U(t_2)|\psi\rangle = \langle\phi_i|U(t_1)|\psi\rangle\langle\phi_j|U(t_2)U^{\dagger}(t_1)|\phi_i\rangle $$
We can define
\begin{align} |x\rangle &= |\psi\rangle\\ |y\rangle &= U^{\dagger}(t_2)|\phi_j\rangle\\ |z\rangle &= U^{\dagger}(t_1)|\phi_i\rangle \end{align}
And we see that the condition is
$$ \langle y|x\rangle = \langle z |x\rangle \langle y|z \rangle = \langle y|z \rangle \langle z |x\rangle $$
This looks like something which might be true, but I don't think it is except in special scenarios.
This seems like a pretty simple calculation to me so I must have made a very obvious mistake or I'm missing something fundamental.
Update
It was pointed out in the comments that my second expression (the one involving the Born rule) is manifestly real. Most definitions I have seen in the literature are consistent with the idea that $\langle A(t_1) A(t_2) \rangle$ can be a complex quantity if $A(t_1)A(t_2)$ is not a Hermitian operator. This means the line of reasoning I took to arrive at the second formula must be incorrect.
My updated question then is how can I use applications of Born's rule and unitary evolution to derive $\langle A(t_1)A(t_2) \rangle$?