In quantum mechanics, the amplitude of wave function propagation can be found using the Feynman's path integral $$ \langle z'|e^{-itH/\hbar}|z\rangle=\int\limits_{x(0)=z\\x(t)=z'} Dx(t')\: \exp\left\{\frac{i}\hbar\int_0^t dt'\:\left[\frac{m\dot{x}^2(t')}2-V(x(t'))\right]\right\}. $$
In the (quasi)classical limit $\hbar\rightarrow0$, the leading contribution to the integral comes from the classical trajectory $$ \frac{d}{dt'}\left[\frac{m\dot{x}^2(t')}2\right]-\frac{d}{dx}\left[V(x(t'))\right]=0, $$ where the action is minimal, and fluctuations around this trajectory provide quantum corrections to the result.
In quantum statistical physics, the path integral can be used to calculate matrix elements of a thermal density matrix by switching to the imaginary time $\tau=it/\hbar$: $$ \langle z'|e^{-\beta H}|z\rangle=\int\limits_{x(0)=z\\x(\beta)=z'} Dx(\tau)\: \exp\left\{-\int_0^\beta d\tau\:\left[\frac{m\dot{x}^2(\tau)}2+V(x(\tau))\right]\right\}. $$
What is the physical meaning of a least-action trajectory in the imaginary time? What do fluctuations around this trajectory mean and how do they qualitatively affect the resulting matrix elements?