My understanding is that Hawking radiation isn't really radiated from a black hole, but rather occurs when a particle anti-particle pair spontaneously pop into existence, and before they can annihilate each other, the antiparticle gets sucked into the black hole while the particle escapes. In this way it appears that matter has escaped the black hole because it has lost some mass and that amount of mass is now zipping away from it.
Is this correct? If so, wouldn't it be equally likely that the particle be trapped in the black hole and the antiparticle go zipping away, appearing as if the black hole is spontaneously growing and emitting antimatter?
How is it that this process can become unbalanced and cause a black hole to eventually emerge from its event horizon and evaporate into cosmic soup over eons?