Is it possible to determine the position of orbiting exoplanets after eg. 50 years? Many parameters of the orbits have large estimates eg .: Tau Ceti f: Orbital period (P) = 642 ± 30 days. It is up to ± 30 days (and this is just an example).

Is there a way to calculate quite precisely the position of the exoplanets after 50 years or more? (Starting from today, of course)

What kind of precision you can get? (In most cases, of course)


The good news is that further observation will reduce the uncertainty on the parameters of the orbit.

The bad news is that eventually statistical uncertainties (from the counting statistics in the light detector if nothing else) will dominate at which point the rate of improvement will start to drop rapidly.

You use the word "precise" without defining a threshold, so no one can answer that for you. Your final question is better, but I'm not familiar with the actual data and equipment so I can't help you.

On issue that is not addressable (as far as I know, with current equipment) is the left-right ambiguity: does the planet pass in front of the star from left to right or vice versa?


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