# Hot air balloon trajectory predictions

Hey there Physics friends!

I've been struggling with what seems to be a very basic physics question. Let's say that I have wind vector for a given altitude and location, and I want to calculate the flight path of a hot air balloon.

So once the balloon hits that wind, would you calculate forward distance based on the wind speed (so would the balloon speed be exactly the average wind speed) or would you use the standard drag equation to calculate the force of the wind on the balloon to determine the distance traveled by the balloon in a given time period?