What mechanism decides when an unstable nucleus decays? [...]
Let me rephrase that question so:
"Given some initial number of (otherwise equal) objects, and having measured the sequence of their subsequent decays (if any),
what can we conclude about the mechanism, or "barrier", which had prevented them from each having decayed/disintegrated right away?"
To consider the simplest possibilities first:
1:
If they had indeed all decayed/disintegrated right away, then (we say that) there was no "barrier" against that to speak of.
2:
If none had decayed/disintegrated within some (non-zero) duration of a trial, then, obviously, there had been some "barrier" (or perhaps rather: "prohibition") against such decays, which had been impenetrable (or "rigorous") so far, in the trial under consideration.
3:
If we're given and looking at only precisely one object and if it had been seen to decay in the trial under consideration (and, as a distinction to 1:
, if that decay had not occured "right away", but after some finite duration of that object having "lived") then:
we can conclude that there had been some barrier; but we cannot draw further conclusions (such as will be described below), with any confidence.
4:
If we're given and considering some "suitably large number" $N_0$ of objects, and if it is found that the measured sequence of their decays followed the "usual exponential law" (including "incidental statistical deviations"), $$\frac{1}{N[~T~]}~\frac{\Delta N[~T~]}{\Delta T} \approx \text{constant},$$ then it can be concluded (with confidence increasing as $N_0$ increases, and as $\frac{N_0 - N_{\text{end of trial}}}{N_0}$ increases, and with the "likelihood of incidental statistical deviations") that the "(potential) barrier" had been equal for all objects and constant throughout the trial, and that the "mechanism" is well described as quantum tunneling. In case of $\alpha$-decay especially: through a "barrier" due to strong force binding nucleons together; according to the analyses by Gamow, Gurney, Condon ...
So: the conclusion, from a trial as described, about the "(potential) barrier" having been (as good as) equal for all given unstable objects/nuclei, and constant (with respect to external "conditions" or "internal parameters"), is derived just due to the decays having been independent of each other, and "statistically random", and the "decay mechanism" having been perfectly universal instead of determining the specific "precise" life duration for each individual unstable nucleus.
To illustrate still more possibilities:
5:
If we're given and considering some "suitably large number" $N_0$ of objects, and if it is found that, after having lived for a while, they all decayed together at once, then:
the "mechanism responsible" for the "sudden drop of the barrier" might be called a "trigger", and even a "perfect trigger", with confidence increasing with $N_0$.
6:
If there were found some (more or less "systematic") deviations from "usual exponential law" as described in 4
, then different "mechanisms" might come into consideration, and "(potential) barriers" other than constant might prove more probable; attributable to "conditions having varied" in the course of the trial.