If you have two wavefunctions $\psi(x, ...)$ and $\phi(x, ...)$ where $..$ indicates whatever quantum number you want (energy, spin, etc) and you only measure $\hat{x}$ (i.e. the position) and get $x_1$ and $x_2$ then how can you tell which one of the two wave functions gave which result?
In your example, the two particles in the $1s$ orbital have exactly the same probability distribution in space so you have no way of distinguishing them with a measurements that does not involve spin. You could distinguish $1s$ and $2s$ states but, unless you measure energy, how well your prediction is will depend on how much the two spatial wavefunctions are overlapping.
But what you can do is compute how well does a prediction do and what factors influence it..?
Additionally, notice that: the probability $P(x_1|1s)$ is high
- the probability $P(x_1|1s)$ is high if the wave function of $1s$ is very peaked in $x_1$ (numerator), if you have a lot of particles in $1s$ (second part of the numerator) and/or if the probability of finding any particle in $x_1$ (the denominator) is very low, i.e. your prediction is good if the two states are very separate in space. Like, if $x_1$ is very close to the nucleus, you can probably assume it's not an $20 s$ particle. But not for sure.
- your measurement, having 2 particles in $1s$ and only one in $2s$ is already biased towards $1s$ so that a random guess saying "this particle is in $1s$" is already pretty good, getting it right approx. 2/3 of the times ;)
- if the particles were to be bosons, this prediction would not change.
However, if you do the wave function of $1s$ is very peaked in $x_1$same thing and if the probability of finding any particle in $x_1$look at relevant quantum measurements (the denominator) is very low, i.e. if the two states are very separate radiallyg. Like, if $x_1$ is very close to the nucleus, youenergy or spin) then your prediction can probably assume it's not an $20 s$ particlebe 100 % efficient. ButSo the answer to your question is not for suregeneral, it depends on whether you actually measure the position or something else.