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NASA developed a pair of catalogs of solar eclipses,: one covering a 5,000 year-year period spanning from from about 4000 years ago to about 1000 years into the future,future; the other, a 10,000 year-year catalog of solar eclipses spanning from from about 6000 years ago to about 4000 years into the future. The accuracy of these catalog degrades drastically before 3000 years ago and after 1000 years into the figure. Beyond thisthese inner limits, the path of the eclipse over the Earth's surface becomes markedly unreliable, as does the ability to determine whether the eclipse will be partial, total, annular, or hybrid. At the outer time limits of the longer catalog, whether an eclipse did / will occur begins to become a bit dubious.

Because of the Earth's much larger shadow, predictions of lunar eclipses are a bit more reliable, but not much. The problem is that of exponential error growth, which is a characteristic of dynamically chaotic systems. Predictions of lunar eclipses more than a few tens of thousands of years into the future isare more or less nonsense. The millions of years asked in the question: No.

NASA developed a pair of catalogs of solar eclipses, one covering a 5,000 year spanning from from about 4000 years ago to about 1000 years into the future, the other, a 10,000 year catalog of solar eclipses spanning from from about 6000 years ago to about 4000 years into the future. The accuracy of these catalog degrades drastically before 3000 years ago and after 1000 years into the figure. Beyond this inner limits, the path of the eclipse over the Earth's surface becomes markedly unreliable, as does the ability to determine whether the eclipse will be partial, total, annular, or hybrid. At the outer time limits of the longer catalog, whether an eclipse did / will occur begins to become a bit dubious.

Because of the Earth's much larger shadow, predictions of lunar eclipses are a bit more reliable, but not much. The problem is that of exponential error growth, which is a characteristic of dynamically chaotic systems. Predictions of lunar eclipses more than a few tens of thousands of years into the future is more or less nonsense. The millions of years asked in the question: No.

NASA developed a pair of catalogs of solar eclipses: one covering a 5,000-year period spanning from about 4000 years ago to about 1000 years into the future; the other a 10,000-year catalog of solar eclipses spanning from about 6000 years ago to about 4000 years into the future. The accuracy of these catalog degrades drastically before 3000 years ago and after 1000 years into the figure. Beyond these inner limits, the path of the eclipse over the Earth's surface becomes markedly unreliable, as does the ability to determine whether the eclipse will be partial, total, annular, or hybrid. At the outer time limits of the longer catalog, whether an eclipse did / will occur begins to become a bit dubious.

Because of the Earth's much larger shadow, predictions of lunar eclipses are a bit more reliable, but not much. The problem is that of exponential error growth, which is a characteristic of dynamically chaotic systems. Predictions of lunar eclipses more than a few tens of thousands of years into the future are more or less nonsense. The millions of years asked in the question: No.

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On predicting planetary orbits#orbits

On predicting eclipses#eclipses

On predicting planetary orbits#

On predicting eclipses#

On predicting planetary orbits

On predicting eclipses

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