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Jan
27
comment Can a small change in the Earth temperature give rise to large-scale climate changes?
@annav: you're aware of the timescales involved? as rendered ($800\times600$), a hundred years corresponds to less than 0.2 pixels...
Jan
27
revised Can a small change in the Earth temperature give rise to large-scale climate changes?
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Jan
27
answered Can a small change in the Earth temperature give rise to large-scale climate changes?
Jan
25
comment Can a small change in the Earth temperature give rise to large-scale climate changes?
@MarkRovetta: you might be interested in youtube.com/watch?v=VbR0EPWgkEI - it's a bit dated, but when I watched that some years ago, I found it rather interesting how much unfounded sensationalism ended up in the supposedly scientific IPCC report of that time; the planned re-examination of temperature data he mentioned has happened and confirmed anthropogenic global warming - volcanoes + $CO_2$ is what fits the data best
Jan
25
comment Can a small change in the Earth temperature give rise to large-scale climate changes?
@LubošMotl: I incorporated my comments into the answer and clarified the argument
Jan
25
revised Can a small change in the Earth temperature give rise to large-scale climate changes?
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Jan
25
revised Can a small change in the Earth temperature give rise to large-scale climate changes?
incorporate comments, tighten arguments
Jan
25
comment Can a small change in the Earth temperature give rise to large-scale climate changes?
@user215721: I did not make any such claims - all I objected to was the idea that causes must somehow be sufficiently large in an arbitrary human temperature scale to have significant consequences, and that's bullshit (see Luboš last comment - evolution just doesn't work that way)
Jan
25
comment Can a small change in the Earth temperature give rise to large-scale climate changes?
@MarkRovetta: some of the claims made by climate change alarmists were not backed by predictions or, in cases were they are supposedly already happening, statistics; of course the same bullshit happens on the side of the deniers
Jan
25
comment Can a small change in the Earth temperature give rise to large-scale climate changes?
re (2) the runaway solution is not due to chaos, but positive feedback and initially triggered by human $CO_2$ emission; we're dealing with a complex dynamical system with peridoc forcing, noise, chaotic subsystems, recent $CO_2$ forcing due to human activity; that system appears to be in a meta-stable phase; even in a fully chaotic system we can have intervals of apparent stability (eg strange attractors), and external forcing can end such periods prematurely
Jan
25
comment Can a small change in the Earth temperature give rise to large-scale climate changes?
@LubošMotl: re (1) temperature records extracted from ice cores show spectral peaks at $111kyr$, $41kyr$, $23kyr$; the former is the most pronounced and is the one you can eyeball without doing spectral analysis; and of course you can have random fluctuations on top of a periodic signal - we call that noise
Jan
25
revised Can a small change in the Earth temperature give rise to large-scale climate changes?
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Jan
25
revised Can a small change in the Earth temperature give rise to large-scale climate changes?
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Jan
25
answered Can a small change in the Earth temperature give rise to large-scale climate changes?
Jan
25
comment Why global warming
If they're hypothetical worries about the future generations, then please leave the problem to future generations who will know 10 times more about these issues than myself and 500 times more than you. - condescension aside, that is an argument that could serve as basis for a rational discussion; however, the claim I responded to was If a temperature change can't be felt, it's surely way too small to "affect life on the Earth"; I'm stopping here, so feel free to get in another shot at having the last word
Jan
25
comment Why global warming
I've used the picture of human activity on earth as an experiment in schoolroom discussions decades before some book I did not read got published by some guy I do not know, and I can assure you I wasn't the first person who used that imagery
Jan
25
comment Why global warming
@LubošMotl: I chose the word experiment because it involves a supposedly rational experimentor, who should avoid doing experiments that results in his death ;) anyway, going by Berkeley Earth, the increase in average land-surface temperature in the last 100 years is about $1K$, but I have absolutely no idea what you're trying to get at here; humans cannot 'feel' global warming happening - so what? the concern is medium-term consequences to the global ecosystem, including future human generations
Jan
25
comment Why global warming
also, please excuse me getting all defensive here - if some moderator were to decide that SE isn't the right place for these kinds of discussions, feel free to remove these ramblings (not that I could do anything about it if you decided to do so anyway ;))
Jan
25
comment Why global warming
the point is that we're involved in a huge one-shot experiment in geo-engineering without really understanding the rules of the game, and I find your absolutist claim that If a temperature change can't be felt, it's surely way too small to "affect life on the Earth" as insufferable as the bullshit Al Gore spouts - but he's a politician, so I didn't expect any better
Jan
25
comment Why global warming
@LubošMotl: please use the @ so I get notified on further comments, and please stop putting words in my mouth: I made it very clear that the end result need not correspond to the starting direction; the point is that human-induced climate change could move us from a apparently reasonably stable region of phase space to a more chaotic one, and as you noted, this would mean that no one can know what the end result will be (cont)