$m_1,u_1, v_1$ be mass, initial velocity and final velocity of your head.
$m_2,u_2, v_2$ be mass, initial velocity and final velocity of opponents hand.
Now, there are four cases,
- $m_1 < m_2$ AND [ $u_1 < u_2$ OR $u_1 > u_2$ ]
- $m_1 > m_2$ AND { $u_1 < u_2$ OR $u_1 > u_2$ ]
$v_1 = \frac{u_1(m_1 - m_2) + 2m_2 (-u_2) }{m_1 + m_2}$
$u_2$ is negative because direction of $u_1$ and $u_2$ opposite.
Also, we are not worried about $v_2$ because its opponents hands velocity after collision. (Who cares what happens to his hand?)
Simplifying and not worrying about denominator,
$v_1 = u_1 ( m_1 - m_2)- 2m_2 u_2$
So, if $m_1 < m_2$ then $v_1 > u_1$ if $u_1$ and $u_2$ have opposite directions and $v_1 < u_1$ if $u_1$ and $u_2$ have the same direction.
and if $m_1 > m_2$ then $v_1 < u_1$ if $u_1$ and $u_1$ have opposite directions and $v_1 < u_1$ if $u_1$ and $u_2$ have the same direction
Hence, if mass of your head is less than mass of your opponents hand then move away from the punch otherwise move into the punch.
So, reason for the recommendation might be that, generally, mass of head is larger than that of hand.
Assumptions:
- Collision is elastic.
Your head and opponents hand are intact after collision $m_1 , m_2$ not changed.
Source: Wikipedia Elastic Collision