Now that we have close-up photos of Vesta, which the IAU had previously said was a candidate dwarf planet, when is the IAU going to decide the issue? Personally, Vesta doesn't look round enough to me.
I don't think this question can really be answered in any factual way. There's a general definition of "dwarf planet" but the IAU is not known for its rapid turn-arounds. There is also a mathematical way to figure out when mass is sufficient to spherize a body under self-gravity, but exact parameters of the body itself result in ambiguity in many cases ... so it's Opinion A vs Opinion B.